Expert analysis
Over the past 48 hours, the conflict in the Middle East has clearly escalated to a new level, having an immediate and significant impact on global energy markets. Market reactions suggest that the key question is no longer whether supply disruptions will occur, but rather the extent of the damage and how long recovery will take.
Accordingly, the TTF front-month gas price opened at €72/MWh, reflecting rising tensions and an increasing risk premium.
What happened in the Middle East?
The escalation was triggered by two key events.
Israel – with U.S. approval – launched a strike on one of the world’s largest gas fields, the South Pars Gas Field. This field is of critical importance globally, meaning any disruption immediately triggers strong market reactions.
In response, Iran targeted regional energy infrastructure, including the Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG hub in Qatar. Initial reports indicate “extensive” and “severe” damage to key LNG infrastructure.
This is a particularly critical development, as the region represents one of the most important global LNG export centers.
Market reaction: immediate price spike
Markets reacted quickly and aggressively to these developments.
European gas prices increased by around 35% in a single day, while in the oil market the Brent crude price climbed close to $110 per barrel.
Current market expectations suggest that TTF prices could reach €100/MWh in the short term, especially if the damage proves significant and recovery is prolonged.
The focus has clearly shifted from potential risk to the actual scale of supply disruption.
Geopolitical backdrop: rising uncertainty
The geopolitical dimension of the conflict is further increasing uncertainty.
The United States is considering strengthening its military presence in the region, while Donald Trump has adopted increasingly aggressive rhetoric, although his statements remain highly volatile and sometimes contradictory.
Meanwhile, Europe appears to be distancing itself from the conflict, signaling a weakening in transatlantic coordination. This could have longer-term implications for energy policy and market dynamics.
Structural implications for energy markets
These developments go beyond a typical regional conflict.
The Persian Gulf and its LNG infrastructure—one of the most critical nodes in the global energy system—have proven vulnerable. This significantly increases the likelihood of not just short-term disruptions, but potentially a supply shock lasting for months.
At the same time, global efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels may accelerate as a result of these risks.
Outlook: what comes next?
Based on current developments, the energy market is clearly pricing in systemic risk.
This could lead not only to further price increases, but also to heightened supply uncertainty and a potential geopolitical realignment.
The key question in the coming weeks will be how and how quickly the conflict can be resolved, and how fast the damaged infrastructure can be restored.
Current market movements send a clear signal: the risks are no longer local—they are global in scope.
Source: Montel Analytics; Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
19.03.2026.