Expert analysis
European LNG inflows continue to decline on a weekly basis, but overall supply remains surprisingly stable despite the near collapse of Qatari LNG exports following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Montel News:
- Europe’s LNG imports still increased by ~5% year-on-year between January and May
- US LNG exports to Europe rose by +14%
- Russian LNG imports also increased (+18%!)
- while Qatari LNG deliveries fell by nearly 50%
From a market perspective, this highlights several important points:
- The US has effectively become Europe’s “swing supplier”
Without US LNG, the current European supply situation would be significantly tighter. - The global LNG system is still functioning — for now
The market has managed to rearrange flows:
more US cargoes to Europe,
more Atlantic LNG redirected to Asia,
plus additional volumes from Nigeria and Algeria. - Weak European demand is currently playing a key role
Mild weather, weaker industrial consumption and high renewable generation mean Europe temporarily requires less LNG. - The real stress is currently more visible in Asia
However, the market remains extremely sensitive:
- a hot summer,
- stronger European storage injections,
- weak wind generation,
- stronger Asian LNG demand,
- or further Middle East escalation
could quickly disrupt the current balance.
The key question now is: how long can Europe stabilize the market with relatively weak demand and without meaningful Qatari LNG supply?
Today’s gas market headlines in brief:
- The US and Iran exchanged new air strikes again, while there is still no real agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The market is increasingly realizing that the situation remains extremely fragile, and any headline could trigger another wave of oil and gas price volatility.
- Meanwhile, the CEO of Uniper warned that next winter could become problematic if European gas storage sites do not refill more quickly. This is particularly important because the market is already partially pricing in de-escalation, while fundamentals remain far from comfortable. In many cases, summer gas prices are not low enough relative to winter forwards, making large-scale storage injections less attractive for traders.
- Trump said he believes he can “outwait” Iran and is not particularly concerned about political pressure linked to the upcoming midterm elections. This may suggest Washington is not in a rush to reach a compromise even if the conflict drags on.
- A new study warned that a conflict over Taiwan could easily escalate into a nuclear confrontation between the US and China. Over the longer term, this could become an increasingly important geopolitical premium for LNG, semiconductors and global supply chains as well.
Source: Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
28 May 2026