Expert analysis
Headline-driven market: sharp reactions, high volatility
The gas market once again demonstrated how quickly and sharply it reacts to geopolitical headlines. On Wednesday morning, the market opened down 6% after comments from Donald Trump raised expectations that the conflict with Iran could come to an end in the near term. Intraday volatility was significant, with a trading range of around €4/MWh.
Today’s opening was almost the mirror image: the market opened up 5,5% following news that the United States will continue its attacks on Iran, without a defined timeline for ending the conflict. This once again intensified concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
Fundamentals: improving, but uncertainty remains
At the same time, the fundamental picture has slightly improved. Weather forecasts point to a milder April, Norwegian flows remain strong, and European storage levels are not as low as previously expected.
However, uncertainty remains high. A key question is how LNG flows will evolve: when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize and when production at the Ras Laffan facility will fully recover. Additional risks include potential escalation in the Red Sea and a possible increase in Asian demand.
What this means for the market
In the current environment, headline-driven price movements will continue to dominate, and sharp swings similar to those seen yesterday are likely to persist in the near term.
At the same time, it is essential to look beyond the headlines and assess the underlying fundamentals: how justified current price levels are and how sustainable they may be.
This remains one of the key challenges in today’s market: separating short-term noise from real, lasting fundamental drivers.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
02.04.2026.