Expert analysis
The risk of further escalation in the Middle East remains elevated, potentially triggering a sharp price spike
Natural Gas | TTF above EUR 90/MWh as winter risk premium rises
- The Dutch TTF November contract approached EUR 94/MWh on 23 October, trading near levels not seen since December 2022.
- EU gas storage stood at 74.6% full on 22 October, approximately 8.2 percentage points below the level recorded a year earlier.
- The key question for the market is whether available inventories will provide a sufficient buffer at the start of the heating season in the event of colder weather or further supply disruptions.
- Norwegian pipeline flows remain a key pillar of European gas supply, with reported daily volumes ranging between approximately 324 and 339 million cubic metres.
- What to watch: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, developments in the Middle East, Norwegian pipeline flows, and when weather conditions begin to drive sustained withdrawals from European storage.
LNG | Intensifying global competition for flexible cargoes
- The conflict in the Middle East is constraining Qatari LNG supply, while Europe must compete with Asian buyers for available cargoes.
- According to a Reuters forecast, Asian LNG imports could reach 23.31 million tonnes in October, the highest monthly level since July.
- What to watch: The recovery of Qatari exports, the diversion of US LNG cargoes towards Europe, and the spread between European and Asian spot prices.
Hungarian and SSE Power | Extreme prices and regional supply tightness
- The Hungarian day-ahead electricity price for delivery on 20 October rose to EUR 326.57/MWh, its highest level since December 2024.
- The Hungarian November forward contract is trading at approximately EUR 272/MWh.
- Paks Nuclear Power Plant was operating at around 1.25 GW out of its 2 GW capacity. Supply was further constrained by maintenance at the Gönyű and Dunamenti gas-fired power plants, nuclear capacity outages in Romania and Bulgaria, and regional hydropower generation running 1.5 GW below the seasonal average.
- What to watch: The actual return dates of unavailable generation units, wind and hydropower output, Ukrainian electricity exports, and price spreads between Hungary, Germany and neighbouring regional markets.
EUA | Allowance prices around EUR 85–86/t, with mixed fundamentals
- Colder weather could increase power-sector emissions and demand for EU allowances. However, stronger wind generation and lower electricity demand could exert downward pressure on allowance demand.
- What to watch: Auction supply, generation mix, market positioning, and developments in EU emissions trading policy.
Coal | API2 above USD 150/t
- High natural gas prices can improve the relative competitiveness of coal-fired generation. However, fuel switching remains constrained by available plant capacity, generation efficiency and EUA costs.
Oil | Brent around USD 114/bbl amid a geopolitical risk premium
Source: Montel News and Reuters.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
26.10.2026