Expert analysis
Geopolitical risk premiums, lower storage buffers and uncertainty surrounding regional power plant availability continue to affect European energy markets simultaneously.
Gas: European TTF gas prices rose to around €88/MWh, approaching their highest levels in more than three years. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, tight European storage levels and colder weather forecasts are all putting upward pressure on prices.
Flow: Norwegian gas flows stood at around 335–340 million m³/day. Supply-side disruptions, including the outage at Kårstø, are increasing the European market’s sensitivity to changes in supply.
LNG: Europe continues to rely heavily on US LNG, with shipments from the United States accounting for approximately 62% of EU and UK LNG imports so far this year.🔹 Storage: EU gas storage levels stood at around 74%. Some forecasts suggest that inventories could fall to as low as 22–30% by the end of winter.
EUA: The Dec-26 EUA contract traded at around €86–87/t. Net long positions held by investment funds have declined significantly, while industrial demand, the regulatory outlook and technical support around €85/t remain key market considerations.
Hungarian and regional power – spot: The Hungarian HUPX day-ahead price for Saturday stood at around €268/MWh, one of the highest Saturday price levels since 2022. Low Romanian wind generation, nuclear outages, declining solar output and colder weather combined to tighten regional supply.
Hungarian and regional power – forwards: The Hungarian front-month contract rose by more than 8% week-on-week to €239–241/MWh. The Q1 contract traded at €217.5/MWh, while the calendar-year-ahead contract stood at around €170/MWh. High gas prices and regional generation risks continue to support forward power prices.
Other: Further attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure caused significant power supply disruptions.
Key market drivers to watch: Weather forecasts, European gas storage levels, Norwegian pipeline flows, the security of LNG shipping routes in the Middle East, and power plant outages across Central and Southeastern Europe.
Source: Montel News and Reuters.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
19.10.2026