Expert analysis
The nearly six-week-long US–Iran war ended in a two-week ceasefire following two days of negotiations – and the gas market responded immediately: the Dutch TTF front-month gas contract fell nearly 20% on Wednesday morning, trading at EUR 43.46/MWh on ICE Endex, with an intraday low of EUR 42.50/MWh, the lowest level since 2 March.
What exactly happened?
On Tuesday evening, Trump announced that the US would suspend its bombing of Iran for two weeks, in exchange for Iran committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that “defensive operations” would cease, and that “safe passage” would be guaranteed for two weeks, coordinated with Iran’s armed forces.
Why does this matter for the energy market?
Prior to the war, approximately one fifth of the world’s LNG and oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively closed since hostilities began on 28 February, and on 18 March an Iranian strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal knocked out approximately 17% of global export capacity. During this period, the European TTF average price stood at EUR 52.46/MWh peaking at a three-year high of EUR 74/MWh on 19 March compared to a pre-February average of EUR 32.42/MWh.
What are analysts saying?
Market reactions are mixed. A senior portfolio manager at trading firm Trianel suggested this could be a turning point for the rebalancing of the global gas market, anticipating an immediate risk-off movement in prices. ANZ Bank analysts, however, caution that even if shipping routes reopen, the lost Qatari output cannot be quickly replaced, meaning the market will likely adjust through a combination of higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing. Montel’s geopolitical energy analyst described the ceasefire as “inherently fragile” – both sides are likely preparing for the next phase of the conflict, and this merely kicks the can down the road rather than representing a lasting settlement.
Summary from an energy procurement perspective
The current situation may bring short-term price relief, but uncertainty has not disappeared. Until the two-week ceasefire expires, it is worth closely monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of recovery in Qatari LNG capacity, these will be the key drivers of European gas prices in the weeks ahead.
Source: Montel News; ICE
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
08.04.2026.