Expert analysis
In the first quarter of this year, the HUPX DAM average price stood at €127.5/MWh, compared to €135.2/MWh in the same period of 2025. The difference is primarily driven by February, when last year saw a combination of higher gas prices and stronger system load due to colder weather.
Looking at the generation mix, the overall structure of the two periods is broadly similar. However, in Q1 2026 the share of gas-fired generation was higher, while the contribution of solar (PV) was lower. In addition, higher import volumes were required this year, as total system load exceeded last year’s levels.
This raises the question: how could the spot average price still be lower in 2026?
The answer lies in the gas market. The TTF Day-Ahead average price was around €49/MWh in Q1 2025, while in 2026 it dropped significantly to approximately €42/MWh. January and February stand out in particular, as prices during this period—before the escalation of the Iranian conflict—were around €15/MWh lower year-on-year. In contrast, March saw a reversal, with prices increasing by roughly €10/MWh compared to the previous year.
These developments clearly show that although the correlation between electricity and gas prices has been gradually decreasing over time, natural gas remains a key driver of power price formation.
Overall picture
The lower average electricity price in 2026 is not the result of significant changes in demand or the generation mix, but primarily due to a more favorable gas price environment at the beginning of the year. This once again confirms that movements in the gas market continue to play a crucial role in shaping the European power market.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
10.04.2026.