Expert analysis
One of the most interesting questions in recent months is why gas prices have not risen significantly, even though the world has effectively lost a large share of Qatari LNG exports that previously transited through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why are we not seeing TTF prices above EUR 60–70/MWh?
The answer lies on both the supply and demand sides.
On the supply side, the global LNG market has adapted surprisingly quickly.
Over the past year, several new LNG projects have come online:
- Plaquemines LNG
- Corpus Christi Stage 3
- Golden Pass LNG
- Canada LNG
- Tortue FLNG (Mauritania–Senegal)
- Congo LNG Phase 2
At the same time, a less visible but extremely important development has been taking place:
- Nigerian LNG exports have increased significantly.
Out of its 22.2 mtpa liquefaction capacity, Nigeria exported only 14.2 million tonnes in 2025 due to feedgas shortages and infrastructure sabotage issues. Improved gas availability and easing operational constraints have materially increased exports in 2026.
The role of US LNG is also worth highlighting.
- Europe has imported roughly the same volume of US LNG over recent months as it did a year ago.
The difference is that the incremental volumes generated by new US LNG export facilities are no longer flowing primarily to Europe, but increasingly to Asia and other regions.
In other words, Europe is not receiving less US LNG — it is simply not receiving the growth.
At the same time, the largest declines in LNG imports have come from Russian and Middle Eastern sources.
On the demand side, several warning signs are emerging.
- China’s LNG imports returned to year-ago levels in May after running roughly 20% below last year’s levels in March and April.
This matters because weaker Chinese demand during the spring effectively freed up LNG cargoes for Europe.
That support may now gradually disappear. - Meanwhile, India, Bangladesh and several other Asian countries continue to actively tender for LNG cargoes despite elevated prices.
- Another important trend is that an increasing share of West African LNG is heading to Asia.
Nigeria, Angola, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea are sending more cargoes eastward, while Europe continues to rely primarily on US LNG, Norwegian pipeline gas and Algerian supplies.
Current price levels therefore do not suggest that the loss of Qatari LNG is irrelevant.
Rather, they show that new LNG capacity, stronger Nigerian exports and previously weaker Chinese demand have so far been sufficient to offset the supply disruption.
The key question ahead of winter 2026/27 is no longer whether enough LNG exists globally.
The real question is what happens if China and the rest of Asia continue increasing LNG imports in the second half of the year while Europe continues competing for the same pool of spot cargoes.
Source: Anne-Sophie Corbeau
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
04.06.2026