Expert analysis
Middle East / Gas Market
- The market remains focused on developments surrounding a potential U.S.–Iran framework agreement.
- According to Reuters, the parties have moved closer to a deal that could include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the gradual lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade, and easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
- The front-month TTF contract fell to EUR 45.5/MWh on Friday before stabilizing around EUR 46/MWh.
- The market is currently pricing in the gradual return of a significant portion of global LNG supply.
- However, the situation remains fragile. Over the weekend, U.S. forces shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, while political resistance to the agreement remains strong in Tehran. In addition, Israel is not part of the proposed deal.
- Key TTF level: EUR 45/MWh. A break below this level could open the way for a test of the EUR 40–43/MWh range.
EUA Market
- The EUA market continues to trade within the EUR 74–81/t range.
- The Dec-26 contract closed around EUR 77/t on Friday.
- Investment funds remain net long, although significant new capital inflows have yet to emerge.
- One of the key events this week will be the European Commission Climate Change Committee vote on benchmark values for free industrial allocation.
- However, the market’s primary focus remains the ETS review expected on July 15.
- In the short term, range-bound trading between EUR 74–81/t remains the most likely scenario.
Southeast European Power Market (SEE)
- Temperature developments and nuclear availability remain the key drivers across the region.
- In France, EDF has warned of potential output restrictions at the 2.7 GW St Alban nuclear power plant due to elevated water temperatures in the Rhône River.
- Meanwhile, Germany is expected to see average solar generation of 17.4 GW next week, significantly above seasonal norms.
- For the SEE region, the key question remains how much additional power demand the heatwave will generate through air-conditioning load, and whether further restrictions emerge in French nuclear generation.
- Bullish factors: heatwave, nuclear output restrictions, potential decline in hydropower generation.
📌 Bearish factors: lower gas prices, strong German solar generation, improving Middle East geopolitical outlook.
Source:
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
01.06.2026