Expert analysis – Technical Outlook & Geopolitical Update
TTF: Correction or simply healthy profit-taking?
The TTF front-month gas contract has corrected by nearly EUR 10/MWh over the past three trading sessions after Donald Trump once again shifted the focus from military escalation to diplomacy, while positive signals emerged regarding the U.S.–Iran negotiations.
Yesterday, Reuters reported that one version of the proposed agreement with Oman could grant Iran significant control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, although several key issues remain unresolved.
Today brought another twist.
According to Reuters, Iran issued a clear warning to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf states: unless they persuade Donald Trump to halt further U.S. military strikes, any renewed attack on Iran could trigger retaliation against oil fields, refineries, power grids, water infrastructure and other strategic energy assets across the Gulf.
In other words, while the market continues to price in a diplomatic solution, geopolitical risk has by no means disappeared. Moreover, it remains uncertain how Israel, the United States and their allies would respond if Iran were granted control over inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly if substantial transit fees were introduced.
Technical outlook
Following yesterday’s sell-off, TTF rebounded to around EUR 55.5/MWh.
• The contract has recovered back to its 50-day moving average (EUR 55.5/MWh), which now represents the key short-term resistance level.
• The 100-day moving average (~EUR 52/MWh) continues to provide solid medium-term support.
• The RSI has stabilised around 51, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold.
• The MACD remains bearish, suggesting that short-term momentum has yet to turn positive.
What to watch
- The EUR 55.5–57/MWh range, defined by the 50-day and 20-day moving averages, remains the key short-term resistance zone.
- A successful breakout above this area could shift the focus back towards EUR 60–62/MWh
- However, if the rebound loses momentum, the 100-day moving average around EUR 52/MWh will remain the most important technical support level.
Current price action suggests that geopolitical developments continue to complicate the otherwise technical and fundamental picture. Diplomatic progress tends to reduce the geopolitical risk premium, while every new escalation in the Middle East quickly brings it back into gas prices.
As a result, headlines surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations are likely to remain the primary driver of TTF price action in the coming days.
Source: Montel Analytics, Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
06.08.2026