Expert analysis
The TTF front monthly contract rose by 11.2% to 61.77 EUR/MWh on Monday
Initially, the rise was mainly fuelled by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, then another Norwegian supply news further accelerated the price increase.
Ormen Lange’s relegation extended by four months
The expected end of the Ormen Lange outage, which is about 9 million cubic meters per day, has been postponed to February 1.
This could remove more than 1.1 billion cubic meters of gas from the European balance of supply – the equivalent of 11 LNG shipments.
The news came at a particularly sensitive moment: the filling of EU gas storage facilities is only 59%, 11 percentage points lower than a year earlier, while the injection rate is also seasonally weak.
The quick US-Iran agreement has moved further away
Gas prices were already rising sharply before the Ormen Lange news after expectations of the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated.
Iran and the US are not currently engaged in direct negotiations. According to Tehran, no substantive negotiations can begin as long as Washington violates the interim agreement reached in June. For the time being, the parties only exchange messages through intermediaries.
The Oman Agreement does not yet mean the opening of Hormuz
Iran and Oman have come close to reaching a technical agreement on new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran has made it clear that signing it alone would not open the strategic waterway.
Iran is demanding, among other things, US reparations, the lifting of military threats, the lifting of the naval blockade and sanctions affecting Iranian shipping, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
The order of implementation remains a fundamental obstacle: Washington would only lift the blockade after fulfilling Iranian commitments, while Tehran expects preliminary US concessions.
Hardline appointment in Iran
The prospects for negotiations were further worsened by the appointment of former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei to one of the key positions in Iran’s national security decision-making.
Rezaei is considered a more outspoken and hard-line character than his predecessor.
The conflict continues to spread in the Red Sea
The Houthis, an Iranian-allied Yemen, carried out a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Yazan refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels a day, and then attacked the port of Mokhai near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The latter strike killed seven people and severely damaged the port’s infrastructure.
The attacks came shortly after a collective defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, increasing the risk of regional spread of the conflict.
The most important message of today’s move is that the geopolitical risk premium was accompanied by a tangible supply problem in Europe. This, together with the low storage capacity and the higher demand for gas power plants caused by the heat wave, quickly raised the TTF to over 61 EUR/MWh after Friday’s correction.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
11.08.2026.