Expert analysis
Market overview: gas up, power and carbon down
European energy markets are currently moving in diverging directions. While gas prices are rising, power and carbon markets are trending lower. This reflects the different drivers behind each market, with short-term factors and fundamentals pulling in opposite directions.
Gas (TTF): supply risks keep prices elevated
TTF front-month gas prices have climbed to a two-week high above €46/MWh, driven primarily by ongoing geopolitical risks. The conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and constrained LNG flows continue to raise supply concerns, while Europe enters the injection season with relatively low storage levels.
European gas storage is currently around 32% full, significantly below last year’s levels. However, market expectations still point to storage reaching around 90% by winter, which could ease pressure in the medium term.
Short-term risks remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz is still not operating normally, making additional LNG cargo arrivals unlikely in the near term. This poses a tangible risk both to global supply and to Europe’s summer injection pace.
Carbon (EUA): weaker prices, lower risk appetite
Carbon prices have softened, accompanied by a reduction in investor positioning. The decline in net long positions suggests a more cautious market environment, with lower willingness to take on risk.
Power: renewables pushing prices lower
Power prices across Central Europe are declining, particularly in Hungary, where strong solar and wind generation may even lead to negative prices over the long weekend.
However, this situation may not persist. Planned outages in May could push prices higher again, especially if renewable generation weakens.
What this means for the market
The current market environment highlights how different energy markets are being driven by different factors:
- gas markets remain driven by geopolitics and supply risks
- carbon markets are in a more cautious, wait-and-see mode
- power prices are currently dominated by renewable generation
The key question for the coming period is whether gas market risks will ease, and whether power and carbon markets will realign with gas-driven fundamentals.
Source: Montel News
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
30.04.2026.