Expert analysis
Forward prices for May delivery are currently trading in the range of 95–100 €/MWh, which at first glance appears somewhat elevated compared to realized SPOT averages in previous years. For reference, average prices stood at 88 €/MWh in 2023, 72 €/MWh in 2024, and around 81 €/MWh in 2025. Based on this comparison, current price levels are clearly positioned toward the upper end of the historical range.
At the same time, the current market environment is shaped by a combination of opposing factors. While certain dynamics justify higher price levels, there are also clear downward pressures present.
On the supply side, outages represent a key upside risk. Maintenance at Paks reduces baseload capacity by approximately 243 MW, further compounded by a 360 MW outage at the DERT G3 unit. These factors alone significantly tighten the domestic generation mix, and additional regional maintenance or unplanned outages could further constrain supply. As a result, the supply side appears more vulnerable in the short term, naturally exerting upward pressure on prices.
In parallel, however, several bearish factors are also clearly visible. May is expected to bring exceptionally strong solar (PV) generation, which could have a substantial price-suppressing effect during daylight hours. This may be further supported by seasonally high hydro generation, driven by snowmelt, strengthening overall supply conditions across the region.
On the demand side, there is little support for higher prices. The heating season has already ended, while cooling demand has not yet meaningfully materialized. This results in a relatively subdued demand environment, which generally acts as a downward force on price formation.
Overall picture
Taken together, these factors point to a broadly balanced market, but one characterized by strong intraday volatility. Increased renewable generation is likely to push prices lower during daytime hours, while tighter supply conditions may re-emerge in the evening, when solar generation drops off, leading to potential price spikes.
Current price levels therefore reflect both the risks on the supply side and the mitigating effects of strong renewable output. The key question remains open: to what extent is the 95–100 €/MWh range justified under the current fundamental conditions for May delivery?
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
24.04.2026.