Expert analysis
Recent developments once again highlight that short-term movements in energy markets are being driven primarily by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply–demand fundamentals.
Talks between the United States and Iran have stalled, as key disagreements remain unresolved regarding uranium enrichment and the conditions for lifting sanctions. Meanwhile, the ceasefire that expired on April 22 was unilaterally extended by the United States, but Iran has made it clear that it will not engage in meaningful negotiations as long as the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled.
Although Washington has called off further planned military strikes, maritime restrictions remain in place. In response, Iran has tightened its control over the Strait and seized several commercial vessels. As a result, shipping flows have become disrupted, while insurance and transportation costs — along with overall risk — have increased significantly.
This uncertain environment alone has been enough to push oil prices back above 100 USD/barrel, while the TTF front-month contract has moved above 45 €/MWh. The market has clearly repriced the geopolitical risk premium.
Overall picture
The current situation once again underlines that one of the greatest vulnerabilities of the global energy system lies in a relatively narrow geographic chokepoint.
As long as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, price movements will be driven less by fundamentals and more by geopolitical risks.
In the short term, this implies persistently high volatility and unpredictable price movements across energy markets.
Source: Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
23.04.2026.