Expert analysis
Middle East / Gas Market
- US-Iran talks could resume in Switzerland, while Iran has once again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues to threaten the ceasefire.
- Although tanker traffic is gradually recovering, a full normalisation may still take weeks or even months, meaning that part of the geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain priced into the market.
- Europe’s gas infrastructure has so far proven resilient to the Hormuz shock, but storage levels remain below last year’s levels, while Asia continues to compete aggressively for LNG cargoes. (Reuters)
What to watch?
The outcome of the Swiss talks over the weekend, actual shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether TTF can sustainably remain within the EUR 40-43/MWh range.
EUA Market
- The benchmark EUA contract continues to trade around the technically important EUR 80-81/t range.
- The market is being supported by expectations of higher gas-fired generation due to warmer weather, while concerns over potentially bearish policy changes in the upcoming July ETS review continue to cap gains. A resolution of the Iranian conflict could provide further upside for EUA prices, whereas another closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely put downward pressure on prices.
What to watch?
Whether EUAs can break above the EUR 81/t resistance level or whether regulatory uncertainty will continue to dominate trading.
Power Market / Heatwave
- An exceptional European heatwave is approaching, likely increasing cooling-related power demand and supporting gas-fired generation.
- In France, several nuclear plants could be affected by high river temperatures and maintenance outages, tightening regional supply.
- In Germany, however, solar generation could exceed seasonal norms by as much as 20%, while wind output is expected to remain weak.
What to watch?
The risk of evening price spikes, the extent of French nuclear restrictions, weather forecasts, and renewable generation projections.
Source:
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
22.06.2026