Expert analysis
Middle East / Strait of Hormuz
The weekend brought another escalation in the conflict. The United States carried out its eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iran after two American soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan. US operations continue to target military infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against US-related targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and reportedly towards Saudi Arabia.
The key question for the market remains when tanker traffic can at least partially resume, and whether shipping and insurance costs will continue to rise.
TTF & LNG
TTF continues to trade almost entirely on geopolitical developments.
Any news pointing to further restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz or another military escalation is likely to push gas prices higher once again.
EUA / ETS Reform
The market is still digesting the European Commission’s ETS reform package unveiled on Friday. In the coming days, investors will assess the longer-term impact of the 3.7% Linear Reduction Factor (LRF), the 12% MSR intake rate, the 400 million EUA Investment Booster, and the inclusion of up to 250 million tonnes of carbon removals on the overall balance of the carbon market.
Following Friday’s relief rally, the key question is whether EUA prices can hold sustainably above EUR 80/t.
Forward Power
Germany’s Cal-27 contract reached another 2.5-year high on Friday, supported by both stronger carbon prices and elevated gas prices.
The key question for next week is whether this combination remains intact and whether short covering in forward power contracts continues.
French Nuclear Generation
As the heatwave eases, EDF’s temperature-related nuclear output restrictions are gradually being lifted, potentially increasing French nuclear generation in the short term.
However, forecasts indicate another heatwave during the first half of August, meaning the market will continue to monitor the risk of renewed nuclear output restrictions.
Storage & Norwegian Maintenance
The market remains focused on the pace of European gas storage injections, the stability of Norwegian pipeline exports, and the outlook for Middle Eastern LNG supply.
Any disruption during the summer injection season could increase risks to winter energy security.
Overall, Middle East developments, European storage levels, high temperatures and the EUA market remain the key drivers of energy prices. While most analysts expect a modest correction, underlying fundamental risks continue to provide strong support against any significant downside.
Source:
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
20.07.2026