Expert analysis
The European natural gas market continues to be driven almost entirely by developments in the Middle East.
Today’s key market developments:
- The front-month TTF contract climbed above €62/MWh, reaching another four-month high.
- The UK front-month NBP contract also rose to its highest level since late March.
- Supply risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the market’s primary price driver.
What’s supporting prices?
- Significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to reduce global LNG supply.
- The Iran-backed Houthis have issued new threats against shipping, including the potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, further increasing maritime risks.
- According to traders, the market is pricing in every lost day of exports, while a diplomatic solution remains out of sight.
European gas storage
- EU gas storage facilities are currently 54.2% full.
- Storage levels increased slightly day-on-day but remain 11 percentage points below the level seen a year ago.
What is the market watching?
- Will diplomatic efforts lead to de-escalation in the Middle East?
- Will the EU push for faster gas storage injections?
- How much will Asian LNG demand increase if El Niño strengthens?
Power & carbon markets
- EU carbon allowances (EUA) have climbed to around €85/t.
- The ongoing heatwave in France continues to reduce available nuclear generation.
- As a result, European forward power prices remain well supported.
Market view
Technical indicators suggest that a short-term correction is becoming increasingly likely. However, current fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, making a significant downside move difficult to justify unless geopolitical tensions ease materially.
Source: Montel Analytics
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
22.07.2026