Expert analysis
The gas market remains focused on the Middle East, while the Hungarian power market is closely watching the weather and the regional supply-demand balance
TTF’s primary focus remains the Middle East:
- Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will hold off on launching another military strike against Iran, provided a rapid agreement can be reached on Iran’s nuclear programme and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, large billboards and murals depicting hostile messages toward Donald Trump, Israel and the United States have appeared across Tehran.
Israel has made it clear that, regardless of any agreement, it will take military action if Iran resumes its nuclear programme or continues developing its ballistic missile capabilities.
Shipping security remains a key concern. Two additional tanker-related incidents were reported off the coast of Oman on Saturday, highlighting that maritime security risks remain elevated. - Public statements and actions from the parties continue to send conflicting signals.
Diplomatic developments over the coming days will determine whether the geopolitical risk premium continues to ease or whether energy prices move higher again.
The coming days could be critical for the Hungarian power market.
- By Sunday, the Paks Nuclear Power Plant was operating at just over 10% of its nominal 2 GW capacity and is expected to shut down completely during the day. At the same time, temperatures are forecast to approach 40°C in the coming days. The government may introduce mandatory electricity demand reductions for large industrial consumers from Monday to ease pressure during the evening peak hours.
- The next five days will be critical from a weather perspective. However, restoring nuclear generation is likely to take considerably longer than the heatwave itself.
Romania’s Cernavodă nuclear reactor is also offline, while maintenance at Hungary’s 380 MW Dunamenti gas-fired power plant ended two days ahead of schedule following an unplanned outage. - HUPX DAM prices continued to rise, although they have not yet reached “extreme” levels. Monday’s day-ahead average price settled at EUR 178.57/MWh, while the highest 15-minute price reached EUR 540.50/MWh between 19:45 and 20:00. Traded volumes clearly reflect the need to replace lost nuclear generation.
Other key fundamentals:
- EU gas storage facilities are currently 56.4% full, while analysts expect storage levels to reach only around 70-75% by the start of winter, well below the EU’s 90% target.
- In the EUA market, upside risks remain dominant as September compliance buying approaches, 2027 auction volumes are expected to decline, and higher fossil-fuel power generation supports demand. EUR 80/t is likely to remain a key support level, while favourable fundamentals could lift EUA prices back towards EUR 90/t.
Sources:
Sources: ReutersMontel NewsHUPX Hungarian Power Exchange Ltd.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
03.08.2026