Expert analysis
Hungarian Power System Under Pressure
The Hungarian electricity market is facing a historic situation: due to the Danube’s record-low water level, the Paks Nuclear Power Plant is expected to shut down completely within the next 24–72 hours, while one generating unit at the Dunamenti Power Plant has also gone offline.
Key developments:
- According to the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, the Danube’s water level is already 28 cm lower than the previous record low set in 2018. As a result, the plant is expected to reach the highest level of low-water emergency status, requiring the shutdown of all four reactor units.
- The loss of Paks would remove approximately 2 GW of nuclear generation from the Hungarian power system. At the same time, the 380 MW gas turbine unit at the Dunamenti Power Plant has also been taken offline, representing an additional loss of baseload generation capacity. The unit is expected to return to service in early August.
- The situation is no better across the region. Romania’s 1.3 GW Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant is also considering a complete shutdown due to the exceptionally low Danube water level, while several nuclear power plants in France have already had their output curtailed.
The extraordinary heatwave is expected to push Hungarian electricity demand 20% above the average summer evening peak, meaning the power system is simultaneously facing record-high demand and a significant reduction in domestic generation.
MAVIR, Hungary’s transmission system operator, is preparing to mobilize domestic reserves and increase electricity imports. Households are being asked to postpone charging electric vehicles and operating other energy-intensive appliances outside the 5:00–10:00 p.m. evening peak period whenever possible.
This situation is likely to drive higher spot and short-term forward electricity prices in both the Hungarian and regional power markets, while significantly increasing Hungary’s import requirements.
What does this mean for the market?
If the Paks Nuclear Power Plant is indeed forced to shut down completely, Hungary could simultaneously lose nearly 2.4 GW of domestic generating capacity (Paks plus Dunamenti), while neighboring countries are also struggling with water shortages and nuclear generation constraints. This would significantly tighten regional supply, intensify competition for electricity imports, and further increase Central European power prices in the coming days.
The next-week baseload power contract has already traded at nearly €300/MWh, representing a 40% price increase.
Analysis written on: Tóth Eszter Lilla
31.07.2026.