Expert analysis
TTF – Correction, but the market remains tight:The FM contract corrected to € 79.95/MWh on Friday from Thursday’s € 83.06/MWh, a nearly four-year high. With inventories low and supply risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persisting, the fundamental outlook remains bullish.
Storage – The injection window is narrowing: EU storage levels stand at just 67.64%, the lowest seasonal level since GIE data collection began in 2011. The market expects inventories to reach only around 70% by November, making the EU’s 80% target increasingly difficult to achieve.
German storage – Particularly vulnerable: storage facilities are 54.5% full, around 28 p. points below the five-year average. At the current injection rate, inventories could reach only around 66% by November.
LNG – European LNG imports are expected to rise by 2.2% in Sept to a four-month high of 7.73 million tonnes. According to Wood Mackenzie, TTF needs to remain above € 70/MWh to keep flexible LNG cargoes within the Atlantic Basin.
Hormuz – Risk premium remains persistent: Qatari loadings have fallen to a 12-week low of 0.19 million tonnes. Without at least a partial recovery in vessel traffic, there appears to be limited room for a meaningful correction in European gas prices.
Norwegian flows – Deliveries are improving: Norwegian pipeline gas flows to Europe increased to 291.9 million m³/day. Stable Norwegian exports are currently one of the most important counterweights to constrained Middle Eastern LNG supply.
Hungarian power – FQ contract at a multi-year high:The Hungarian front-quarter contract climbed to EUR 202/MWh, its highest level since January 2023. In addition to elevated gas prices, maintenance at Paks, the Cernavoda outage and weak Balkan hydropower generation continue to pose upside risks.
German power – High fuel costs remain supportive: The German Cal-27 contract traded at EUR 133.07/MWh, while the FM product stood at EUR 162.60/MWh. Elevated gas, coal and EUA prices, together with uncertainty surrounding French nuclear availability, are limiting the scope for a correction.
French nuclear generation – 4.1 GW constrained: Heat-related restrictions and low river flows are affecting 6.4% of the French nuclear fleet.
EUA – Profit-taking after a seven-week high: The Dec-26 contract rose to EUR 86.66/t before correcting to EUR 85.53/t. Compliance buying ahead of the end-September deadline and improving coal-fired generation margins continue to support demand in the short term.
Oil – The market is pricing in a prolonged conflict: Brent corrected to USD 105.61/bbl after reaching an intraday high of USD 109.97/bbl.
Coal – Supply constraints: The API 2 contract climbed to USD 142.75/t. Limited Colombian supply and river transportation disruptions in Indonesia continue to provide support to the market.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
14.09.2026