Expert analysis
TTF – bullish outlook despite the correction:
- The front-month contract fell to EUR 71.31/MWh, but holding above the technical support level of EUR 69.38/MWh could reopen the way towards EUR 75/MWh. Low storage inventories, Norwegian outages and developments in the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep the market tight.
Norwegian flows – significant outages alongside scheduled maintenance:
- Unplanned issues at Troll and Aasgard have reduced available capacity by a combined 16.6 mcm/day. The Troll outage comes on top of 18.2 mcm/day of scheduled maintenance, while Norwegian pipeline exports are running at around 278 mcm/day.
Storage – the injection window is narrowing:
- EU storage facilities are 65.9% full, approximately 12 percentage points below last year’s level, while German inventories stand at only 53.3%. ING expects EU stocks to reach just 72–73% by the start of the heating season, although the European Commission still considers the 80% target achievable.
LNG – Europe benefits from weak Asian demand, but Qatar remains a key risk:
- European and UK LNG imports could rise by 10% month on month to 8.39 million tonnes in September. Meanwhile, weekly Asian imports are forecast to fall by 32% to their lowest level in more than six years. Qatar is operating at only 20–30% of its LNG production capacity, and no LNG carrier transit through the Strait of Hormuz has yet been confirmed in September.
EUA – the market could remain within the EUR 82–85/t range:
- The Dec-26 contract climbed to a six-month high of EUR 84.20/t. Compliance buying and gas-to-coal switching are providing support, while higher September auction volumes and political developments surrounding the ETS reform pose downside risks.
Hungarian power – elevated Q4 risk premium:
- The Q4-26 contract reached a three-and-a-half-year high of EUR 195.50/MWh, while the October product gained EUR 22.50/MWh in one week to reach EUR 190.50/MWh. Key risks include expensive gas, weak Balkan hydro generation, scheduled maintenance at Paks and uncertainty surrounding the return of Cernavodă.
Balancing energy – MAVIR test next week:
- MAVIR will temporarily suspend its participation in the European imbalance-netting process. This could result in greater aFRR activation and higher balancing-energy prices, particularly during the afternoon hours.
Oil and coal – Hormuz keeps the risk premium elevated:
- Brent is trading at around USD 95.55/bbl, up nearly 7% over the week, while API 2 coal has risen to USD 138.80/t. Coal is supported by high TTF prices, increasing gas-to-coal switching and stronger Asian demand resulting from LNG supply disruptions.
Procurement focus: Next week’s main market drivers may include updates to Norwegian UMMs, the EUR 69.38/MWh TTF support level, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, power-generation availability across nuclear, hydro, gas-fired and renewable assets, and MAVIR’s balancing-market test.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
07.09.2026