Expert analysis
This week, energy markets will remain driven by weather conditions, Middle Eastern developments, EU carbon policy, Asian LNG demand and maintenance at power plants and Norwegian gas infrastructure.
Unless significant escalation, supply disruptions or EU policy decisions occur, gas and power prices may trade sideways.
However, upside risks remain more pronounced, with a potential US response to Saturday’s attack on Riyadh airport adding to geopolitical uncertainty.
Gas; LNG: TTF rose above €81/MWh on Friday.
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and weather-related risks to US LNG exports are increasing supply uncertainty.
Storage amp; flows: EU gas storage stood at around 73% full.
Outages at Norway’s Dvalin and Heidrun fields reduced gas flows by 12.7 mcm/day.
EUA: The December contract traded at around €86.73/t. Technical movements, speculative positioning and fuel switching remain key price drivers.
Coal; oil: API 2 coal prices climbed to $147.95/t, their highest level since April 2023. Middle Eastern tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz could further increase oil market volatility.
Russia–Ukraine conflict: Trump criticised Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure following the announcement of an agreement affecting Russian diesel supplies. A strike on Zaporizhzhia killed 20 people, including three children.
Middle East: Despite Trump’s statements that negotiations are continuing, recent escalation has raised doubts about de-escalation. An LNG tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week, while a Houthi attack on Riyadh airport at the weekend reportedly killed at least 12 people.
These developments add to geopolitical risks facing energy markets.
Weather-driven heating demand, Middle Eastern tensions, LNG shipping security and potential disruptions to US export capacity will remain key factors for European gas prices.
Hungarian and regional power: Hungarian front-month power prices stood at around €226/MWh, reaching a multi-year high. Nuclear outages in Kozloduy, Cernavodă and Paks, lower hydropower generation, declining solar output and colder weather could put further upward pressure on prices. Rising Ukrainian import requirements add to regional market tightness.
EUA prices are also expected to remain elevated, limiting the potential for a significant decline in electricity prices.
Source: Montel News and Reuters.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
12.10.2026