Expert analysis
Energy prices have corrected since this morning, but fundamental risks have not eased
After reaching a morning high of €64.6/MWh, TTF corrected to €63.2/MWh, while NBP traded at 155–156 p/therm and Brent fell below $91/bbl. EUAs declined to around €81.5/t.
Thursday’s day-ahead power prices settled at €160.9/MWh in Romania, €153.8/MWh in Bulgaria and €132.0/MWh in Serbia. Publication of the Hungarian auction result was delayed, but HUPX eventually settled at an average of €161,34/MWh.
Paks continues to generate approximately 487 MW, equivalent to around 24% of its 2 GW capacity. Both units at Romania’s Cernavodă nuclear power plant remain offline.
Another heatwave is approaching the region, with temperatures forecast to reach 35°C in Budapest and as high as 37–38°C in Bucharest, increasing electricity demand for cooling.
Geopolitical risks have not eased either: only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with no LNG carrier identified. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran.
What does this mean?
The current price correction appears to reflect profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift. For energy buyers, the main risks remain Hungarian evening peak hours, TTF support at €62.5–63/MWh, nuclear availability at Paks and Cernavodă, and actual LNG and oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz
Analysis written on: Tóth Eszter Lilla
19.08.2026.