Expert analysis
Gas
- Forward power: two-way risk – Weather conditions and returning generation capacity are exerting downward pressure, while the TTF and geopolitical risk premium are providing upside support. Hungarian Q4 power is already trading at around EUR 171/MWh, with the TTF front month close to EUR 67/MWh.
- Overall outlook: Gas and oil fundamentals remain bullish, Hungarian and regional power prices may face a short-term bearish correction, while the EUA market is likely to remain neutral and range-bound.
- TTF remains bullish – The front-month contract reached EUR 66.96/MWh. The EU’s low 61.8% storage level, Norwegian outages and restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continue to sustain the risk premium.
- Critical price level: EUR 60/MWh – Europe may need to keep the TTF above this level to attract more than 140 LNG cargoes per month and remain competitive with the JKM, currently equivalent to EUR 64.95/MWh.
- Kårstø outage – The disruption at the Norwegian processing plant is now restricting supply by around 30mcm/day. The duration of the outage and the development of Norwegian pipeline flows will be crucial in the short term.
- Winter storage outlook – The EU has lowered its storage target to 80%, but analysts expect inventories to reach only 68–73%, which could create significant supply risks in the event of a cold winter.
- Direction of LNG cargoes – Six cargoes have been redirected towards Europe so far in August, while only two have been diverted away. The key question is whether higher Asian prices will reverse this favourable trend.
Power
- Hungarian spot: a short-term bearish correction may follow – The gradual restart of Paks and an expected 35–45cm rise in the Danube’s water level could materially reduce Hungarian and regional spot prices.
- The Paks restart schedule remains the main risk – The plant is currently operating at only 480–500MW. Any further delay could send HUPX and short-dated Hungarian power prices higher again.
- Regional weather – Above-average rainfall could improve hydropower output and nuclear cooling conditions, although river flows may not fully normalise until the end of September.
- International nuclear availability – The market should monitor the return of Cernavodă, the continued availability of Kozloduy, stable operation at Krško and the easing of environmental restrictions on the French nuclear fleet. A substantial share of South-Eastern Europe’s nuclear capacity remains offline.
EUA
- EUA remains neutral for now – The December contract continues to trade within the EUR 81–84/t range. Technical support at around EUR 81/t and compliance-related buying ahead of the 30 September deadline could limit the downside.
- Positioning – Speculative net-long positions fell by 13%. A renewed increase in gas or power prices could therefore trigger another rapid round of position-building.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
24.08.2026