Expert analysis
Gas: direction will depend on fundamentals—storage levels and LNG inflows—and geopolitical developments.
Power: bullish in the short term due to low nuclear and hydropower output; some relief may arrive in September.
EUA: likely to remain stable until September.
TTF & LNG
TTF: FM contract stood at ~ EUR 61/MWh on Friday, up 10% wow. Prices around EUR 60/MWh may be necessary for Europe to attract sufficient LNG.
Strait of Hormuz: No laden LNG carrier has passed through the strait since 1 August.
LNG imports: European imports are forecast at 6.13 million tonnes in August, up 1.1% month on month but down 15% year on year. US volumes could rise by 22% to 4.34 million tonnes.
Storage: EU gas storage facilities were 59.9% full, up 1.8 percentage points week on week, still 12–13 percentage points below last year.
Norwegian supply: The Kollsnes outage reduced supply by 10.8mcm/day, while the 8.9mcm/day Ormen Lange outage may continue until February 2027, removing around 1.1 bcm from Europe’s winter balance.
Weather: Europe’s fifth heatwave appears to have ended, which could reduce cooling demand and improve the pace of storage injections.
Winter balance: Energy Aspects forecasts EU inventories of only 21 bcm, or 19% of capacity, by the end of March. A cold winter would therefore pose a significant upside price risk.
HUPX: Price risks remain elevated due to drought and regional nuclear outages.
Paks: Output currently stands at 0.48 GW. Authorities are attempting to stabilise and increase generation by artificially raising the Danube’s water level.
Cernavodă: Both units, with a combined capacity of 1.35 GW, are offline. This affects around 20% of Romanian generation and increases regional import requirements.
Krško: Output increased from 0.56 GW to 0.68 GW.
Regional nuclear supply: Around 2.9 GW, or 48% of SEE’s nuclear capacity, remains offline or constrained.
France: Heat-related nuclear unavailability reached 16.9% of the fleet, by Saturday.
Hydrology: Water inflows across Central and Southeast Europe are running at ~50% of normal, with no normalisation expected before the end of September.
French hydropower: Reservoir stocks stand at 61% of capacity, while the hydrological deficit is 6.3 TWh. Winter contracts already include a drought premium of EUR 15–20/MWh.
EUA
- The EUR 80–85/t range can currently be considered stable.
- Auction supply: ~50 million EUAs could be auctioned in Sept, compared with ~30 million in August, potentially limiting further price gains.
- Compliance demand: The approaching 30 September surrender deadline and the return of traders from summer holidays could increase liquidity and buying interest.
- Fossil generation: Higher gas-fired and potentially coal-fired generation during the heatwave is supporting demand for allowances. The expected cooling should reduce power demand and fossil-fuel generation, creating a short-term downside risk.
Sources:Montel News
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
17.08.2026