Expert analysis
Strait of Hormuz: the market is no longer pricing a full blockade, but “selective control”.
Over the past 48 hours, several Reuters reports have pointed to a new market narrative emerging:
- the key risk is no longer a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather the emergence of partial, politically controlled access to shipping flows.
According to Reuters:
- some tankers can reportedly transit only after diplomatic coordination
- certain countries (such as China, India and Pakistan) may receive preferential treatment
- the IRGC is playing an increasingly direct role in overseeing transit
- several tankers are operating with transponders switched off
- daily vessel traffic remains far below normal levels
t the same time, Iran and Oman are discussing a new “security mechanism” for the strait, suggesting regional players may already be preparing for a longer-term structural shift rather than a short-lived disruption.
Why does this matter for Europe?
For the LNG market, this remains clearly bullish:
- higher tanker and insurance costs
- persistent logistical uncertainty
- lower global LNG flexibility
- elevated geopolitical premium
The market increasingly fears a scenario where: Hormuz is not fully closed,but instead becomes a selectively controlled transit corridor influenced by politics and regional alliances.
Such a setup could keep volatility elevated and leave the TTF market highly sensitive during the critical summer storage refill period.
Meanwhile, the UAE is already accelerating infrastructure projects designed to partially bypass the Strait of Hormuz — another sign that regional players increasingly view the current situation as a structural rather than temporary risk.
Source: Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
21 May 2026