Expert analysis
Gas Market / TTF
TTF has broken through the key psychological 50 EUR/MWh level, as the market increasingly realises that Europe may genuinely need to compete for LNG cargoes this summer in order to refill storage sites.
Key bullish factors:
- geopolitical premium remains elevated due to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz
- low EU storage levels (~36%), well below the 5-year average
- US and European LNG maintenance outages and uncertainties around Freeport
- rumours of a significant offshore production outage at China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), potentially increasing China’s prompt LNG demand
- Argentina is already seeking July LNG volumes
The JKM/TTF spread continues to point towards Asia, posing a risk for Europe in terms of attracting LNG cargoes.
Meanwhile, extreme moves are also visible within the TTF curve itself: the Q3/Q1 spread has widened significantly while liquidity remains low. According to several market participants, the move appears more like speculative “paper play” activity rather than classic physical hedging.
Power Market
Hungarian SPOT power prices remain elevated, with Monday average prices above 140 €/MWh on the HUPX exchange.
Key stories for the coming weeks:
- strong solar generation
- persistently weak wind generation in Germany
- warmer-than-average weather
- one of the most important factors: power plant outages, planned and unplanned repairs and maintenance across the region
Residual load may increase, continuing to support gas-fired generation and limiting any meaningful correction in power prices.
EUA / Carbon Market
EUA continues to trade sideways around ~75 EUR/t.
Current market focus:
- July ETS reform package
- possible slowdown of the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF)
- stronger focus on industrial competitiveness
- changes to the EEX auction calendar
The market is currently struggling to find direction:
- higher gas prices and coal-switch dynamics continue to support EUA prices
- however, weak macroeconomic conditions and policy uncertainty are limiting further upside
Headline-driven, low-liquidity moves are likely to continue in both the gas and EUA markets over the coming weeks.
Source: Montel News SEE
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
18.05.2027