Expert analysis
US–Iran Ceasefire: markets have calmed, but risks remain
The US–Iran conflict has entered a new phase following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement. The development had an immediate impact on European gas markets, with part of the geopolitical risk premium being priced out and TTF gas prices returning to a trading range of around €40–43/MWh.
For now, market direction remains heavily dependent on further developments in the region. Any renewed escalation could push prices higher again, while the normalization of shipping activity and the uninterrupted operation of the Strait of Hormuz could support further downside.
However, the situation is far from fully resolved. According to Tom Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas and LNG Analysis Europe at Wood Mackenzie, satellite imagery suggests that Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex could require up to 12 weeks to fully recover, even if the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens without restrictions.
Fundamentals may soon return to the forefront
While geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary market driver in the coming days, medium term attention is expected to shift back to the fundamental factors that were already creating upward pressure before the conflict intensified.
These include above average temperatures across Europe and Asia, which are expected to increase energy demand, relatively low European gas storage levels compared to seasonal targets, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding global LNG supply.
As a result, although the extreme price reactions seen during the height of the crisis have eased, the market remains highly sensitive to any event that could affect supply security or LNG availability.
The risk premium has not disappeared
Market participants remain cautious, as geopolitical risk has not been fully removed from pricing. Donald Trump has stated that the United States is prepared to launch further military action should Iran violate the agreement. At the same time, tensions persist elsewhere in the region, particularly in Lebanon, where clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue.
The current market balance remains fragile. In the short term, geopolitical headlines are likely to dominate trading activity. Over the coming weeks, however, storage injections, summer demand patterns, and LNG supply developments are expected to regain influence over market direction.
Sources: Montel News, Wood Mackenzie
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
18.06.2026