Expert analysis – Technical Outlook & Geopolitical Update
Peace talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough, while TTF edges higher and an important decision affects the Hungary–Serbia gas link
US and Iranian officials held indirect talks for the first time since the July ceasefire collapsed. According to Reuters, their positions remain far apart.
- Iran is prioritising the lifting of the naval blockade on its ports and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. By Thursday, market hopes for a quick agreement had faded.
TTF: winter fundamentals are adding support alongside geopolitical risk. According to a Montel News market report, the front-month TTF contract was trading at €75.50/MWh. It had reached €84.50/MWh the previous Monday before briefly falling below €70/MWh on Tuesday.
Storage levels may limit the scope for further price declines. According to GIE data, EU gas storage was 70.2% full—the lowest level for this time of year since data collection began in 2011. Temperatures and the start of heating demand could therefore become particularly important over the coming weeks.
Norwegian supply is expected to improve in the short term. Gassco data showed flows from Norway to the rest of Europe at 224 million m³/day, down 2 million m³/day on the day. Maintenance at gas fields and processing plants affected around 134 million m³/day of capacity on Thursday. That figure is forecast to fall to 39 million m³/day by Monday. If the recovery materialises, it could help offset some of the geopolitical risk.
Hungarian focus: temporary EU exemption at two interconnection points on the Serbian border. The European Commission has approved a temporary exemption for Kiskundorozsma 1 and 2 from EU rules on standardised capacity products. According to the Hungarian energy regulator MEKH, the transition period will allow the regulatory, technical and IT conditions needed for full implementation to be established on the Serbian side. The target is to apply the rules from the 2027/28 gas year.
The importance of this route is clear from the volumes. According to FGSZ data, Hungary imported 5.8 billion m³ of gas in the first half of the year, of which 3.8 billion m³ arrived via Serbia.
What are we watching now?
Concrete progress in US–Iran talks and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the actual reduction in Norwegian maintenance outages; EU storage levels; and the onset of heating demand.
If these factors develop favourably, prices could fall substantially, as last week’s decline showed, potentially moving below €70/MWh. If the Middle East conflict escalates, however, TTF could rebound towards €80–90/MWh. These are possible scenarios, not price forecasts.
Source: Montel Analytics, Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
24.09.2026