Expert analysis
Prices fell, but winter risks remain
GAS
On 22 September, the front-month TTF price fell to EUR 68.65/MWh during the day before recovering to EUR 73.33/MWh in the afternoon. Hopes for US–Iran talks and forecasts of milder weather in October shaped the move.
Despite the short-term decline, the winter supply outlook remains tight: EU gas storage is around 70% full, well below last year’s level. Uncertainty around Middle Eastern shipments and competition for LNG could still cause sharp swings in gas prices.
POWER
For Hungarian electricity buyers, regional supply matters alongside gas prices. Weak hydropower output and limited nuclear availability in Southeast Europe increase price risks for the fourth quarter. Analyst scenarios for the region include prices above EUR 200/MWh. This is not a forecast for Hungarian prices, but it shows the exposure of neighbouring markets.
What should buyers watch?
Daily TTF movements, storage injections, the availability of French and regional power plants, and autumn rainfall and temperatures. Together, these factors will determine whether the current price decline becomes sustained relief or proves to be a temporary correction.
Source: Montel News
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
23.09.2026