#WhatToWatch 20260928

Easing gas prices, lingering winter risks – are the bears finally gaining the upper hand?

GAS

TTF: diplomacy and weather are pushing prices lower.

On September 25, front-month TTF traded around €70/MWh in late-afternoon trading, down 5% on the day. Mild October forecasts and hopes of a US–Iran agreement reduced the risk premium. The next key signal, however, will be an actual increase in LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The winter buffer remains thin.

EU gas storage facilities are 70.4% full, compared with 82% a year earlier. A mild autumn could support further injections, but a late-winter cold spell or another supply disruption could quickly reverse market sentiment.

POWER

Hungarian and regional power: supply matters alongside falling gas prices.
Weak hydropower output and nuclear maintenance are tightening supply in Southeast Europe. For the Hungarian market, maintenance at Paks and Romanian and Bulgarian nuclear plants, overlapping outages, and import availability are particularly important. Cheaper gas alone does not guarantee an equally large decline in Hungarian power prices.
Upside risks also remain in Germany: unfavourable wind and precipitation forecasts.

EUA

EUA: a modest daily decline, broadly stable prices over the week.
The December allowance contract traded at €86.64/t on Friday, with market participants generally expecting a near-term range of €85–90/t. Developments around the ETS reform and allowance demand from power generators will be worth watching.

Next week’s focus:

Actual LNG flows, Norwegian outages, storage injections, regional nuclear restarts, and changes in wind, temperature and precipitation forecasts.
The power market currently looks considerably less bearish than the gas market, where meaningful diplomatic progress could open the door to further substantial price declines. However, upside risks remain extremely high: renewed escalation could send gas prices surging back towards €80/MWh.

Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla

28.09.2026