Expert analysis
Donald Trump sees a swift end to the Iran conflict, while Tehran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The draft would focus on halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while postponing the most complex issues (e.g. the nuclear program).
The market reaction was immediate:
- oil and gas prices declined
- part of the geopolitical risk premium was priced out
But what lies beneath the surface?
From an energy market perspective, this looks more like a tactical de-escalation than a real resolution:
- the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural chokepoint
- key issues (nuclear program, regional power dynamics) remain unresolved
- the deal buys time rather than solves the problem
What does this mean for the market?
- Short term: price correction, easing risk premium
- Mid-term:
- persistent volatility
- rapid repricing on any negative headlines
The market continues to follow headlines rather than fundamentals.
Bottom line:
The prospect of peace is pulling prices lower — but without lasting stability, the geopolitical premium is not disappearing, just temporarily sidelined.
Source: Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
07.05.2027