Expert analysis
Middle East / Strait of Hormuz
he market remains extremely headline-driven.
Although prices eased on Friday, TTF is still trading around ~44 €/MWh while another exchange of fire took place between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
The key questions remain:
- when can shipping traffic fully resume?
- how sustainable is the ceasefire?
- how real is the diplomatic progress?
According to the CIA, Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for as long as 3-4 months.
Hans Gunnar Naavik (Arctic Securities):
“For every month the Strait remains closed, around 10 bcm of gas supply is lost.”
This remains a major upside risk for the European gas market.
EU gas storage
EU gas storage sites are currently only ~34% full:
- more than 7 percentage points below last year’s level
- storage injections remain slow (unfavourable renewable output last week and several power plant outages worsened the situation)
The market is becoming increasingly sensitive to any LNG flow-related news.
Meanwhile, Eurogas warns that: the EU’s regulatory and permitting framework could threaten security of supply
EUA / EU ETS
EUA prices continue to “anchor” around ~75 €/t.
The market is waiting for:
- next week’s EU ETS roundtable
- the broader ETS review expected in July
- investment funds’ net long position falling to the lowest level since last July
Technically:
- bearish breakout below 71.60 €/t
- bullish breakout above 78.07 €/t
Until then, a largely sideways market is expected.
Power / weather
German wind generation could rise significantly next week: +6.3 GW week-on-week
This could reduce German spot power prices by as much as 20-24%.
At the same time:
- solar output could remain weaker
- heavy precipitation in the Alps could boost hydro output
- colder temperatures are arriving across Europe
The market is currently pricing in:
- weaker demand
- stronger wind generation
- but still elevated geopolitical risk in gas markets.
In the Hungarian / regional market, supply tightness is being caused by power plant outages (planned and unplanned outages at Paks, Kozloduy, Cernavoda and Dert).
Russian LNG
Despite the EU spot ban, Russian LNG continues to arrive in Europe in significant volumes.
Between January and April: Russian LNG imports into Europe rose +21% YoY
The main reason:
- most volumes are tied to long-term contracts
- spot volumes represent only a relatively small share
France, Spain and Belgium remain the main entry points.
The market is now watching:
- when and how quickly these volumes could be redirected to Asia
- whether additional sanctions could target the Yamal project and the Arc7 fleet.
Source: Montel News SEE
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
11.05.2027