Expert analysis
Middle East / Strait of Hormuz
The key development over the weekend is that Iran has once again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the U.S. military maintains that commercial shipping remains possible via the southern route. The market’s primary focus in the coming days will be whether tanker traffic normalises and whether insurance premiums and freight costs continue to rise.
TTF & LNG
TTF continues to be driven primarily by developments in the Middle East. Any further attacks on commercial shipping, effective restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or disruptions to Qatari LNG exports could push prices back above EUR 50/MWh, although this level proved to be strong resistance during the past week.
EU ETS Reform (17 July)
Attention remains firmly on the upcoming ETS reform package. The annual Linear Reduction Factor (LRF), the potential release of additional EUAs from 2027 and future auction volumes are expected to be the key drivers for the carbon market. According to market participants, EUR 80/t is emerging as an important equilibrium level.
French Nuclear Availability
Heat-related output restrictions announced by EDF are likely to remain a key factor for French export availability and the broader German power market.
Weather
The European heatwave remains a critical market driver. Higher cooling demand, elevated river temperatures and nuclear output restrictions could increase gas-fired power generation, supporting electricity, natural gas and EUA prices.
EU Gas Storage
European gas storage is currently 51.1% full, still around 10 percentage points below last year’s level. Injection rates remain one of the market’s most closely watched indicators.
Norwegian Flows
The market continues to monitor the full recovery of Norwegian exports following the Ormen Lange compressor outage, as well as any additional unplanned supply disruptions.
Source:
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
13.07.2026