Expert analysis
Further escalation in the Middle East – the Strait of Hormuz is back in focus
The US has launched another round of military strikes against Iran after Tehran carried out attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to Washington, the operation aims to keep one of the world’s most critical energy routes open.
During the latest US strikes, CENTCOM reported that around 90 Iranian military targets were hit, including air defence systems, missile and drone facilities, as well as coastal military infrastructure.
In response, Iran targeted US military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Reports indicate that Patriot missile defence systems, fuel infrastructure, and communication facilities were among the targets.
The geopolitical escalation was immediately reflected in energy markets:
- TTF broke out of the 43–45 €/MWh range and is now trading again within the 45–49 €/MWh interval,
- the market has started to price in a geopolitical risk premium once again.
The key question for the coming days is whether these military actions mark the beginning of a broader escalation, or – as seen previously – both sides are using military pressure to strengthen their positions ahead of a new round of diplomacy.
However, the scale of the price increase suggests that market participants are still expecting a diplomatic resolution rather than a prolonged disruption scenario.
Source: Reuters
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
09.07.2026