Expert analysis
TTF – still bullish and volatile:
- The FM contract climbed towards EUR 69–70/MWh during the week before correcting. Its next direction will primarily depend on news concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the expected recovery of Qatari LNG exports, and whether the EUR 60–65/MWh support zone holds.
Norwegian flows – maintenance season is approaching:
- Deliveries fell to 321.3mcm/day by Friday, an outage at the Troll field caused an additional 7mcm/day reduction. Several planned maintenance events will begin in Sept, meaning that any UMM revisions could have a significant impact on TTF prices and storage injections.
Storage – even a 70% level by Nov could be at risk:
- EU storage facilities are only 63.8% full, while Germany stands at 51.6%. The market will be watching whether higher LNG imports can offset Norwegian maintenance and whether the required injection pace can be maintained throughout Sept.
LNG – intensifying competition between Europe and Asia:
- The JKM rose to a 3.5 year high of USD 22.95/MMBtu, while the European LNG price is also trading at around USD 22/MMBtu. With the TTF–JKM spread narrowing, even a modest recovery in Asian demand could divert US spot cargoes away from Europe.
Hormuz – diplomatic developments could trigger sharp price moves:
- The proposed temporary Iranian–Omani shipping corridor briefly pushed gas and oil prices lower, but it has yet to receive US approval, while Iran continues to threaten tanker seizures. Actual vessel transits will provide a more meaningful signal than political statements.
EUA – range-bound for now, with two-way risks:
- The EUR 82–85/t range is likely to remain the key trading corridor. Compliance buying and a potential fuel switch provide upside support, while weak industrial demand and the decline in investment funds’ net long positions exert downward pressure.
Hungarian power – the return of Paks could drive a correction:
- Paks is operating at close to its full 2 GW capacity, easing supply pressure in Hungary and the region. The downside may be limited by high TTF prices, the availability of the Mátra and DERT plants, and evening import demand.
Southeast Europe – remains vulnerable:
- Cernavodă’s 1.35 GW capacity remains offline, Kozloduy 5 is curtailed by 165 MW. Evening demand in Romania could exceed 7.5 GW in Sept, increasing the risk of renewed spot price spikes.
Evening power prices – solar ramp-down remains a major risk:
- The sharp decline in PV output after sunset could continue to cause significant price spikes. Particularly high hourly prices may persist until mid-Sept on warm, low-wind days.
French nuclear output – cooling and technical risks remain
Coal – Asian demand and Rhine logistics:
- The front-month API 2 contract rose to USD 131.75/t, while Chinese import demand continues to strengthen.
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
30.08.2026