Expert analysis
Improving gas supply, limited winter reserves – Hungarian power prices hit a multi-year high
GAS
TTF: winter risks outweighed near-term relief.
European FM gas rose to EUR 76/MWh on Friday, gaining EUR 2/MWh on the day. Despite increasing Norwegian flows and relatively mild weather, low inventories, the absence of Qatari LNG and the risk of US–Iran escalation continue to support prices.
Storage: time is running short to build winter reserves.
EU gas storage is 71.5% full, around 11 pp below last year’s level. Germany stands at approximately 58%, prompting the government to order 8 TWh of additional gas injections. The key question over the coming weeks is how much additional supply can enter storage before heating demand strengthens.
LNG: more cargoes are arriving, but Asian demand is picking up.
Europe’s Sept LNG imports reached a four-month high of 7.56 million tonnes, while Wood Mackenzie expects a further 50 million cubic metres per day increase in Oct. Meanwhile, Indian and South Korean demand is recovering. Competition for cargoes remains strong despite improving arrivals.
POWER
Hungarian power: the front-month contract reaches EUR 209/MWh.
Hungarian front-month power climbed on Thursday to its highest level since January 2023. Regional supply remains constrained by the 1.35 GW outage at Romania’s Cernavodă plant, maintenance at Paks and weak hydropower generation. At Paks, another 480 MW unit is expected to go offline from mid-October, alongside the existing 480 MW outage.
Weather: wind could ease price pressure, while water shortages pose a longer-term risk.
German wind generation could exceed seasonal norms from mid-October, while Alpine precipitation may reach 30–50% above average following a dry start to next week. This could improve near-term supply, but Europe is approaching winter after its most severe summer low-flow period since records began in 1992.
EUA
EUA: near-term weakness, but expectations of a year-end rally persist.
The December carbon contract fell to EUR 84.37/tonne on Friday following the end-September allowance surrender deadline. Traders see a potential EUR 83–85/tonne range in the near term, while one market participant suggested prices could reach EUR 90–95/tonne in November–December, supported by expectations of a tighter market next year.
OIL
Oil: escalation risks remain elevated despite improving physical supply.
Brent traded around USD 102.18/barrel on Friday after gaining approximately USD 4/barrel the previous day. The possible deployment of additional US military forces to the region and the threat of retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure continue to leave the market exposed to sudden price spikes.
Next week’s watchlist: the onset of heating demand, the sustainability of Norwegian and LNG supply, German wind generation forecasts, and developments in regional nuclear outages.
Source: Montel News
Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
05.10.2026