#WhatToWatch 20260706

Expert analysis

TTF: Geopolitical premium & storage pressure

US–Iran negotiations / Strait of Hormuz
- TTF remains highly sensitive to Middle East headlines.
- Limited progress in peace negotiations has led the market to rebuild part of the geopolitical risk premium.
- Key levels:
  - TTF front month: ~43–45 EUR/MWh
  - Around 40 EUR/MWh remains an important support level
  - Above 45 EUR/MWh → stronger geopolitical + weather-driven premium
Qatari LNG / Ras Laffan restart
- Qatar aims to restore normal LNG production, but analysts warn that the ramp-up could face delays.
- Bullish: slow recovery → stronger Europe–Asia LNG competition
- Bearish: stable tanker traffic → geopolitical premium decreases
EU gas storage
- EU storage level: ~49%
- Around 10 percentage points below last year
- Significantly below the five-year average
- Risk: heatwave → higher gas-to-power demand → slower storage injections

POWER – Heatwaves, nuclear risks & evening price spikes

European heatwave 2.0
- Weather remains the key market driver in the coming days.
- France: up to +8°C above seasonal norms; temperatures close to 35–40°C → nuclear availability risk
- Germany: +5–8°C above normal
- Impact:
  - higher cooling demand
  - higher residual load
  - potential increase in gas-to-power demand
Hungary / SEE region
- The region remains one of the most sensitive areas.
- Recent example: HUPX DA: 290.71 EUR/MWh, with hourly prices close to 1,000 EUR/MWh
  After temperatures eased: DA fell to 136.93 EUR/MWh (-42%), hourly peaks around 250 EUR/MWh
- Paks: 600 MW output restriction, Danube water temperature remains key
- SEE bullish setup: heatwave + low hydro + nuclear restrictions + evening solar drop

EUA – ETS reform vs. heatwave support

ETS reform (17 July)
- The key event ahead.
- Market currently in wait-and-see mode:
  - Dec26 EUA: ~79–80 EUR/t
  - EUR 80/t technical level
- Key level:
  - compliance buyers have appeared below this area
- Analyst expectations:
  - Q3 average: ~80 EUR/t
  - Potential range:
    - Bullish: 82–85 EUR/t
    - Bearish: 75–80 EUR/t
Auction supply
- To watch:
  - RePowerEU revenue target
  - If the EUR 20bn target is reached:
    auction volumes could be reduced by around 571k EUAs per auction
  - Impact:
    - lower supply → price support
    - Weather-driven EUA support
    - Heatwave impact: higher cooling demand
      → more gas-to-power generation
      → higher emissions
      → stronger EUA demand

Summary:

Bullish factors to watch:

TTF >45 EUR/MWh
Hormuz LNG delays
slower EU storage injections
further EDF nuclear restrictions
Paks / Danube water temperature
SEE evening price spikes
reduced EUA auction supply

Bearish factors to watch:

renewed focus on US–Iran agreement
Qatar LNG normalisation
strong LNG inflows into Europe
strong solar generation
additional supply elements in ETS reform

Main message: In July, the market is pricing the combination of heatwave risks + geopolitics + a lower storage buffer.

Source:

Analysis written by: Tóth Eszter Lilla
06.07.2026